Trade Turbulence: How Reduced Soybean Exports to China Are Hitting the U.S. Economy

New IMPLAN analysis reveals the economic ripple effects of reduced soybean farming due to tariffs, and what a recovery could mean moving forward.

According to the Wall Street Journal, China purchased just over 200 million bushels of U.S. soybeans from January through August of this year. That’s an 80% drop from the nearly 1 billion bushels purchased during the same period last year. For an industry where China previously accounted for more than half of the $24.5 billion in U.S. soybean exports, the change represents an estimated $9.8 billion reduction in output.

But the economic impact doesn’t stop on the farm.

Far-Reaching Economic Ripples

Soybean farming drives activity across much of the country, operating at notable levels in three-quarters of all U.S. states, and with its highest concentration in about one-quarter of them. Beyond farm income, soybean production supports:

• Agricultural input suppliers
• Food and biofuel processors
• Transportation and logistics operators
• Farm machinery and equipment manufacturers

Our IMPLAN analysis shows how a $9.8 billion reduction in soybean production cascades through the wider U.S. economy:

• A reduction of -$22B in total economic activity
• A reduction of -$12.3B in GDP
• Nearly 70,000 jobs lost across the supply chain

The industries experiencing the largest drops in demand include:

• Pesticide and other agricultural chemical manufacturing
• Support activities for agriculture and forestry
• Nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizer production and mixing
• All other crop farming
• Wholesale nondurable goods merchant wholesalers
• Battery manufacturing
• Rail transportation
• Water, sewage, and other utility systems

These impacts highlight just how interconnected the soybean sector is with rural communities and industrial production nationwide.

How to Move Forward

Volatility in global trade can quickly reshape local economies. In this case, lower Chinese demand due to tariffs has threatened jobs and incomes far beyond the farm gate, pressuring the broader agricultural supply chain, rural communities, and domestic manufacturing.

“Our analysis shows just how deeply connected U.S. agriculture is to global trade,” said Jenny Montell, Ph.D., Chief Economist at IMPLAN. “An estimated $9.8 billion decline in soybean sales to China doesn’t just impact farmers; it ripples through manufacturing, transportation, and local economies across the country. The analysis makes clear that shifts in export demand can have outsized effects on GDP and jobs in rural America.”

Last week’s announcement of reduced tariffs on U.S. goods and confirmation of new Chinese soybean orders brings cautious optimism. The findings in this report provide a critical baseline for evaluating how much of this lost economic activity can be regained in 2025.

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